Footnote Reader · Macro & Capital Research

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Government bond yields

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Monetary policy

Markets Have Priced Out Rate Cuts. What Changed?

Persistent inflation, a change in policy leadership and revised employment data have reversed rate expectations. Cuts have been priced out, but a hike is not yet certain.

2026/09/08

Currencies & global markets

Rate-Hike Expectations Are Surging. Why Is the Dollar Struggling to Rise?

The dollar index depends on its counterpart currencies. A stronger yen, mixed Fed signals and an unreleased CPI report help explain why hike expectations have not delivered a stronger dollar.

2026/09/07

Energy & precious metals

Better Payrolls, More Trouble for Gold?

Gold reacts to the interest-rate implications behind employment data. Real rates drive short-term pricing, while sovereign credit supports the longer-term trend.

2026/09/06

Economic data

August U.S. Payrolls Beat Expectations by a Wide Margin, Bringing Rate Hikes Back into Focus

A strong August payroll report and upward revisions revived hike expectations. The composition of job gains and modest wage growth still leave the trend open to confirmation.

2026/09/05

Bonds & credit

New York Fed Data: Credit-Card Balances Mount as Delinquencies Stay Elevated for Two Years

Elevated credit-card debt and new delinquencies call for a distinction between old bad debt and fresh payment stress, alongside the links between savings, inflation and consumption.

2026/09/04

Economic data

September Payroll Preview: Better Employment Data Could Worry Markets More

Weak employment and high inflation leave markets wary of both strong and weak payrolls. Job gains, unemployment and wages will jointly shape September rate expectations.

2026/09/03