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The Dollar Index covers only six currencies. Compare the euro, yen, renminbi and Treasury yields to distinguish the forces behind a rising index.
Outsourcing changes which employer reports a worker. Distinguish employment counts, job counts and job quality to understand the limits of labour market data.
The Fed's 2% inflation target emerged as a compromise among price stability, policy flexibility, and wage adjustment. Its role is to anchor long-term expectations, rather than serve as a monthly performance benchmark.
August's PCE reading appeared to show cooling inflation, but annual revisions changed the July baseline. On a consistent basis, headline and core inflation showed no further cooling.
The Fed's 2% target is an anchor, not a switch that must be reached before rates can change. Its latest projections point to a multiyear return to target, while the next PCE release will also require careful treatment of annual revisions.
Cross-border yen borrowing has expanded substantially, but bank balances capture only part of the funding exposure. Crowded positioning can trigger a sharp unwind even without a major deterioration in fundamentals, while intervention has limited power over the accumulated stock.
Annual core CPI inflation fell, but an unexpectedly firm monthly increase lifted rate-hike expectations. Annual and monthly measures can move in opposite directions, and a trend still requires consistent follow-up data.
What the preliminary payroll benchmark revision measures, why revisions occur, and why a historical adjustment does not settle the current jobs outlook.
Sticky inflation, stalled real spending and shifting futures prices complicate the September policy outlook, ahead of statistical revisions.
Energy costs reach consumers through a chain of production, distribution, margins and time lags rather than a one-for-one pass-through.
July PPI came in below expectations, but producer and consumer prices need to be interpreted using their different scopes.
How a 2.29% breakeven is calculated, why it differs from a current CPI reading, and what its movement can tell us.
The Sahm Rule tracks changes in the three-month average unemployment rate. The June reading cited in the original was below its trigger, but neither one payroll report nor one threshold settles the recession question.
July payrolls fell by 23,000 while unemployment declined to 4.1%. Participation, the household survey and earlier revisions help distinguish changes in jobs from exits from the labour force.
What CPI and PPI measure, how costs can reach consumers, and why the difference between the two is not a profit-margin measure.
Unemployment, participation, payroll revisions and separate surveys must be read together to understand the labour market.
