Resilient headline indices are masking weak market breadth as higher rates encourage selective sector positioning. The gap between the market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 shows why an index gain need not reflect the experience of individual holdings.
The Bank of Japan raised rates despite a small dip in core CPI, focusing on underlying pressures and the transmission of upstream costs. A wide US–Japan rate gap still limits support for the yen.
The HKMA’s Base Rate follows the rules of the currency peg, while banks set prime rates according to funding costs and business conditions. The exchange rate and HIBOR show how pressure passes through.
A unanimous 25-basis-point increase moved short-term yields more than long-term yields. The dot plot points to possible further hikes, but records individual forecasts rather than a settled policy path.
Mortgage rates have risen even as the Fed has stayed on hold. Expectations for future policy rates and compensation for long-term risk both shape borrowing costs at the far end of the yield curve.
Forecasts for the end of tightening diverge as policy credibility, election timing and energy supply shocks interact. Prolonged high rates change borrowing costs, rather than providing a simple trading signal.
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