Economic data
Why Outsourced Workers Count as Neither Layoffs nor New Hires
Outsourcing changes which employer reports a worker. Distinguish employment counts, job counts and job quality to understand the limits of labour market data.
Labour markets
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Economic data
September’s Payroll Puzzle: Slower Hiring Does Not Mean Easier Monetary Policy
Payroll growth has slowed sharply, yet unemployment remains near the Fed’s long-run benchmark. A cooling labour market does not automatically remove the constraints on monetary policy.
Economic data
Neither Firing nor Hiring: The US Labour Market Enters an Era of Low Mobility
Low layoffs coexist with subdued hiring and quits. The emerging employment risk is a prolonged shortage of new opportunities, rather than an immediate wave of job losses.
Monetary policy
Markets Have Priced Out Rate Cuts. What Changed?
Persistent inflation, a change in policy leadership and revised employment data have reversed rate expectations. Cuts have been priced out, but a hike is not yet certain.
Energy & precious metals
Better Payrolls, More Trouble for Gold?
Gold reacts to the interest-rate implications behind employment data. Real rates drive short-term pricing, while sovereign credit supports the longer-term trend.
Economic data
August U.S. Payrolls Beat Expectations by a Wide Margin, Bringing Rate Hikes Back into Focus
A strong August payroll report and upward revisions revived hike expectations. The composition of job gains and modest wage growth still leave the trend open to confirmation.
Economic data
September Payroll Preview: Better Employment Data Could Worry Markets More
Weak employment and high inflation leave markets wary of both strong and weak payrolls. Job gains, unemployment and wages will jointly shape September rate expectations.
Monetary policy
The Fed Chair: Committed to Discipline, Not a Decision
Warsh explains his approach to policy discipline and forward guidance, while markets reassess the outlook for interest rates.
Economic data
US Payrolls Revised Down: A Statistical Error or a Weaker Labour Market?
What the preliminary payroll benchmark revision measures, why revisions occur, and why a historical adjustment does not settle the current jobs outlook.
Bonds & credit
A 2.84% Credit Spread: Is the Bond Market Worried?
At 2.84%, the high-yield OAS remained relatively low. A weaker labour market and low spreads offered different signals; their subsequent relationship warrants attention.
Economic data
After the July Payroll Report, How Close Is the Sahm Rule to Its Trigger?
The Sahm Rule tracks changes in the three-month average unemployment rate. The June reading cited in the original was below its trigger, but neither one payroll report nor one threshold settles the recession question.
Economic data
An Unexpected Payroll Decline: How Should We Read It?
July payrolls fell by 23,000 while unemployment declined to 4.1%. Participation, the household survey and earlier revisions help distinguish changes in jobs from exits from the labour force.
Economic data
Does Lower Unemployment Mean a Better Economy?
Unemployment, participation, payroll revisions and separate surveys must be read together to understand the labour market.