The Fed's 2% inflation target emerged as a compromise among price stability, policy flexibility, and wage adjustment. Its role is to anchor long-term expectations, rather than serve as a monthly performance benchmark.
August's PCE reading appeared to show cooling inflation, but annual revisions changed the July baseline. On a consistent basis, headline and core inflation showed no further cooling.
Low layoffs coexist with subdued hiring and quits. The emerging employment risk is a prolonged shortage of new opportunities, rather than an immediate wave of job losses.
Silver’s supply deficit has persisted through a dramatic price reversal. What changed was the market’s pricing focus—from scarcity and easier monetary conditions to the cost of capital.
The dollar is responding to a repricing of the future U.S. interest-rate path, rather than one rate increase. The contrast with Japan shows why exchange rates depend on expected policy trajectories, not just current rate differentials.
The Fed's 2% target is an anchor, not a switch that must be reached before rates can change. Its latest projections point to a multiyear return to target, while the next PCE release will also require careful treatment of annual revisions.
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