Research topic · Footnote Reader
US banks reported strong annual earnings growth, yet their shares fell. Quarterly momentum, credit-loss provisions and refinancing risks help explain the market reaction.
Read US banks' quarterly results through borrowing demand, interest margins and repayment pressure to understand how high rates affect demand and inflation.
The Dollar Index covers only six currencies. Compare the euro, yen, renminbi and Treasury yields to distinguish the forces behind a rising index.
Compare gold returns across observation periods, distinguish the level of real yields from their direction, and examine changes in speculative positioning.
An auction yield of 5.300% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77 measure different things. Separate price, participation and supply to understand the signal.
Technology giants are entering the long end of the credit market. Follow financing structures, interest burdens and the cash flows AI investment eventually delivers.
A 131-basis-point French–German bond spread highlights how national fiscal differences are being reflected in long-term sovereign borrowing costs.
High-yield and investment-grade credit spreads are diverging. Read them alongside benchmark rates to track financing pressure and its effects on investment and employment.
A completed Fed rate increase does not freeze long-term borrowing costs. Mortgage rates above 7% are exposing a split between new and existing homes, with higher monthly payments eventually putting pressure on sellers to adjust prices.
Most of the one-day rise in the 10-year Treasury yield came from real yields, rather than inflation compensation. The broader curve move points to a repricing of the policy path and the cost of capital, with consequences for financing and asset valuations.
Resilient headline indices are masking weak market breadth as higher rates encourage selective sector positioning. The gap between the market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 shows why an index gain need not reflect the experience of individual holdings.
A unanimous 25-basis-point increase moved short-term yields more than long-term yields. The dot plot points to possible further hikes, but records individual forecasts rather than a settled policy path.
Mortgage rates have risen even as the Fed has stayed on hold. Expectations for future policy rates and compensation for long-term risk both shape borrowing costs at the far end of the yield curve.
Forecasts for the end of tightening diverge as policy credibility, election timing and energy supply shocks interact. Prolonged high rates change borrowing costs, rather than providing a simple trading signal.
The dot plot shows officials’ views of appropriate future interest rates. Read the medians, the dispersion of dots and the economic projections together, while distinguishing expectations from a fixed policy timetable.
An energy shock is pushing central banks towards tighter policy. Simultaneous increases do not cancel out risk: they raise refinancing costs, while long-term yields also reflect supply, term premia and geopolitical risks.
The Fed and the fiscal authorities weigh different costs. Inflation and employment constrain monetary policy, while interest bills create a more immediate fiscal pressure.
Inflation, hike expectations and fiscal pressure are driving a global bond selloff. Japanese yields and currency intervention also raise questions about capital flows and Treasury spillovers.
A historical look at safe-haven flows, wartime interest-rate controls, inflation and fiscal pressures on Treasury yields.
Japan’s divergent markets raise questions about the wage-inflation cycle, exchange-rate trade-offs and the fiscal cost of higher rates.
Treasury buybacks may ease pressure on long bonds, but their mechanism and limits differ from Federal Reserve quantitative easing.
Rising yen funding costs and exchange-rate volatility are changing the risks of the global carry trade.
Sticky inflation, fiscal deficits and term premiums are contributing to a global repricing of long-term financing costs.
The article examines the slower fiscal squeeze caused by interest costs rather than treating the debt burden only as an immediate default risk.
A timeline traces the accumulation of U.S. debt through crises and the growing fiscal impact of higher interest rates.
Treasuries, gold and the dollar responded as expectations of another rate increase eased. A greater likelihood of unchanged rates does not establish that a cut is coming.
How a 2.29% breakeven is calculated, why it differs from a current CPI reading, and what its movement can tell us.
Higher real rates can raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. Subtracting current CPI from a nominal yield illustrates purchasing power, but is not the same as the ten-year TIPS real yield.
The article explains an upward-sloping yield curve, the previous inversion and why the curve is a signal rather than a recession countdown.
