Treasuries, gold and the dollar responded as expectations of another rate increase eased. A greater likelihood of unchanged rates does not establish that a cut is coming.
CPI, PPI and retail sales show easing price pressures and weaker consumption, while markets shift towards a September pause.
July PPI came in below expectations, but producer and consumer prices need to be interpreted using their different scopes.
How a 2.29% breakeven is calculated, why it differs from a current CPI reading, and what its movement can tell us.
At 2.84%, the high-yield OAS remained relatively low. A weaker labour market and low spreads offered different signals; their subsequent relationship warrants attention.
The Sahm Rule tracks changes in the three-month average unemployment rate. The June reading cited in the original was below its trigger, but neither one payroll report nor one threshold settles the recession question.
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