Economic data
Why Outsourced Workers Count as Neither Layoffs nor New Hires
Outsourcing changes which employer reports a worker. Distinguish employment counts, job counts and job quality to understand the limits of labour market data.
Economic data
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Economic data
September’s Payroll Puzzle: Slower Hiring Does Not Mean Easier Monetary Policy
Payroll growth has slowed sharply, yet unemployment remains near the Fed’s long-run benchmark. A cooling labour market does not automatically remove the constraints on monetary policy.
Economic data
After the Annual PCE Revisions, U.S. Disinflation Needs Reassessing
August's PCE reading appeared to show cooling inflation, but annual revisions changed the July baseline. On a consistent basis, headline and core inflation showed no further cooling.
Economic data
Neither Firing nor Hiring: The US Labour Market Enters an Era of Low Mobility
Low layoffs coexist with subdued hiring and quits. The emerging employment risk is a prolonged shortage of new opportunities, rather than an immediate wave of job losses.
Currencies & global markets
The Dollar Index Tops 101: What Is Driving This Rally?
The dollar is responding to a repricing of the future U.S. interest-rate path, rather than one rate increase. The contrast with Japan shows why exchange rates depend on expected policy trajectories, not just current rate differentials.
Monetary policy
How Long Until Inflation Returns to 2%?
The Fed's 2% target is an anchor, not a switch that must be reached before rates can change. Its latest projections point to a multiyear return to target, while the next PCE release will also require careful treatment of annual revisions.
Currencies & global markets
After the Rate Hike, U.S. Mortgage Rates Break Above 7%
A completed Fed rate increase does not freeze long-term borrowing costs. Mortgage rates above 7% are exposing a split between new and existing homes, with higher monthly payments eventually putting pressure on sellers to adjust prices.
Monetary policy
Japan Raises Rates: A First Step Towards Breaking the Deadlock?
The Bank of Japan raised rates despite a small dip in core CPI, focusing on underlying pressures and the transmission of upstream costs. A wide US–Japan rate gap still limits support for the yen.
Monetary policy
Ahead of the Fed Meeting: Why the Dot Plot Matters
The dot plot shows officials’ views of appropriate future interest rates. Read the medians, the dispersion of dots and the economic projections together, while distinguishing expectations from a fixed policy timetable.
Monetary policy
Core Inflation Fell. Why Did the Probability of a Rate Hike Rise?
Annual core CPI inflation fell, but an unexpectedly firm monthly increase lifted rate-hike expectations. Annual and monthly measures can move in opposite directions, and a trend still requires consistent follow-up data.
Monetary policy
Markets Have Priced Out Rate Cuts. What Changed?
Persistent inflation, a change in policy leadership and revised employment data have reversed rate expectations. Cuts have been priced out, but a hike is not yet certain.
Currencies & global markets
Rate-Hike Expectations Are Surging. Why Is the Dollar Struggling to Rise?
The dollar index depends on its counterpart currencies. A stronger yen, mixed Fed signals and an unreleased CPI report help explain why hike expectations have not delivered a stronger dollar.
Economic data
August U.S. Payrolls Beat Expectations by a Wide Margin, Bringing Rate Hikes Back into Focus
A strong August payroll report and upward revisions revived hike expectations. The composition of job gains and modest wage growth still leave the trend open to confirmation.
Bonds & credit
New York Fed Data: Credit-Card Balances Mount as Delinquencies Stay Elevated for Two Years
Elevated credit-card debt and new delinquencies call for a distinction between old bad debt and fresh payment stress, alongside the links between savings, inflation and consumption.
Economic data
September Payroll Preview: Better Employment Data Could Worry Markets More
Weak employment and high inflation leave markets wary of both strong and weak payrolls. Job gains, unemployment and wages will jointly shape September rate expectations.
Economic data
US Payrolls Revised Down: A Statistical Error or a Weaker Labour Market?
What the preliminary payroll benchmark revision measures, why revisions occur, and why a historical adjustment does not settle the current jobs outlook.
Economic data
Are Rate-Increase Expectations Receding? Three Key Readings This Week
CPI, PPI and retail sales show easing price pressures and weaker consumption, while markets shift towards a September pause.
Economic data
The PPI Release: What Did Producer Prices Tell Us?
July PPI came in below expectations, but producer and consumer prices need to be interpreted using their different scopes.
Economic data
After the July Payroll Report, How Close Is the Sahm Rule to Its Trigger?
The Sahm Rule tracks changes in the three-month average unemployment rate. The June reading cited in the original was below its trigger, but neither one payroll report nor one threshold settles the recession question.
Economic data
An Unexpected Payroll Decline: How Should We Read It?
July payrolls fell by 23,000 while unemployment declined to 4.1%. Participation, the household survey and earlier revisions help distinguish changes in jobs from exits from the labour force.
Economic data
How Does Inflation Travel from the Factory to Your Wallet?
What CPI and PPI measure, how costs can reach consumers, and why the difference between the two is not a profit-margin measure.
Economic data
Does Lower Unemployment Mean a Better Economy?
Unemployment, participation, payroll revisions and separate surveys must be read together to understand the labour market.