Economic data
How Much Inflation Has the Market Priced In? Understanding Breakeven Inflation
How a 2.29% breakeven is calculated, why it differs from a current CPI reading, and what its movement can tell us.
74 research article
Bonds & credit
A 2.84% Credit Spread: Is the Bond Market Worried?
At 2.84%, the high-yield OAS remained relatively low. A weaker labour market and low spreads offered different signals; their subsequent relationship warrants attention.
Economic data
After the July Payroll Report, How Close Is the Sahm Rule to Its Trigger?
The Sahm Rule tracks changes in the three-month average unemployment rate. The June reading cited in the original was below its trigger, but neither one payroll report nor one threshold settles the recession question.
Energy & precious metals
Gold Is Sensitive to Real Rates, Not Just Rate Increases
Higher real rates can raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. Subtracting current CPI from a nominal yield illustrates purchasing power, but is not the same as the ten-year TIPS real yield.
Economic data
An Unexpected Payroll Decline: How Should We Read It?
July payrolls fell by 23,000 while unemployment declined to 4.1%. Participation, the household survey and earlier revisions help distinguish changes in jobs from exits from the labour force.
Energy & precious metals
How Higher Oil Prices Reach Your Household Budget
Oil affects household costs through refining, fuel, transport and retailing, with no fixed pass-through or timetable. Headline and core CPI need to be assessed together.
Currencies & global markets
Why Does the Dollar Index Move Markets Worldwide?
The dollar index measures a six-currency basket, while the dollar influences commodity pricing, debt burdens and monetary-policy expectations.
Economic data
How Does Inflation Travel from the Factory to Your Wallet?
What CPI and PPI measure, how costs can reach consumers, and why the difference between the two is not a profit-margin measure.
Economic data
Does Lower Unemployment Mean a Better Economy?
Unemployment, participation, payroll revisions and separate surveys must be read together to understand the labour market.
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