74 research article
The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by about $2.2 trillion, and its overnight reverse repo cushion is nearly exhausted. Watch short-term funding rates for signs of strain.
High-yield and investment-grade credit spreads are diverging. Read them alongside benchmark rates to track financing pressure and its effects on investment and employment.
Payroll growth has slowed sharply, yet unemployment remains near the Fed’s long-run benchmark. A cooling labour market does not automatically remove the constraints on monetary policy.
The Fed's 2% inflation target emerged as a compromise among price stability, policy flexibility, and wage adjustment. Its role is to anchor long-term expectations, rather than serve as a monthly performance benchmark.
August's PCE reading appeared to show cooling inflation, but annual revisions changed the July baseline. On a consistent basis, headline and core inflation showed no further cooling.
Low layoffs coexist with subdued hiring and quits. The emerging employment risk is a prolonged shortage of new opportunities, rather than an immediate wave of job losses.
Silver’s supply deficit has persisted through a dramatic price reversal. What changed was the market’s pricing focus—from scarcity and easier monetary conditions to the cost of capital.
The dollar is responding to a repricing of the future U.S. interest-rate path, rather than one rate increase. The contrast with Japan shows why exchange rates depend on expected policy trajectories, not just current rate differentials.
The Fed's 2% target is an anchor, not a switch that must be reached before rates can change. Its latest projections point to a multiyear return to target, while the next PCE release will also require careful treatment of annual revisions.
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