Monetary policy
Markets Have Priced Out Rate Cuts. What Changed?
Persistent inflation, a change in policy leadership and revised employment data have reversed rate expectations. Cuts have been priced out, but a hike is not yet certain.
74 research article
Currencies & global markets
Rate-Hike Expectations Are Surging. Why Is the Dollar Struggling to Rise?
The dollar index depends on its counterpart currencies. A stronger yen, mixed Fed signals and an unreleased CPI report help explain why hike expectations have not delivered a stronger dollar.
Energy & precious metals
Better Payrolls, More Trouble for Gold?
Gold reacts to the interest-rate implications behind employment data. Real rates drive short-term pricing, while sovereign credit supports the longer-term trend.
Economic data
August U.S. Payrolls Beat Expectations by a Wide Margin, Bringing Rate Hikes Back into Focus
A strong August payroll report and upward revisions revived hike expectations. The composition of job gains and modest wage growth still leave the trend open to confirmation.
Bonds & credit
New York Fed Data: Credit-Card Balances Mount as Delinquencies Stay Elevated for Two Years
Elevated credit-card debt and new delinquencies call for a distinction between old bad debt and fresh payment stress, alongside the links between savings, inflation and consumption.
Economic data
September Payroll Preview: Better Employment Data Could Worry Markets More
Weak employment and high inflation leave markets wary of both strong and weak payrolls. Job gains, unemployment and wages will jointly shape September rate expectations.
Bonds & credit
Japan’s 10-Year Government Bond Yield Breaks 3% for the First Time in 30 Years
Inflation, hike expectations and fiscal pressure are driving a global bond selloff. Japanese yields and currency intervention also raise questions about capital flows and Treasury spillovers.
Monetary policy
After 40 Years, the Fed Revisits M2: Does More Money Necessarily Mean Inflation?
Why the Fed is paying renewed attention to money supply, and how M2 growth relates to inflation and the policy framework.
Monetary policy
A September Rate Hike Is Nearly 60% Priced In: What to Watch
Distinguish a futures-implied probability from a policy decision, and track the data that could change September rate expectations.
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