Oil Exports Are Back to Prewar Levels. Why Aren't Oil Prices?
Gulf crude export volumes have recovered, but transport routes, costs and risk premiums have not. The export system remains central to the outlook for oil prices.
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Gulf crude export volumes have recovered, but transport routes, costs and risk premiums have not. The export system remains central to the outlook for oil prices.
With oil approaching $100, vulnerability depends on both energy buffers and the ability to pay for imports. Ample reserves cannot eliminate the cost of expensive energy.
Break down the freight, insurance and time costs of detours, and trace how those costs reach cargo owners and consumers.
Alternative pipelines can preserve deliveries, but detour costs, other chokepoints and capacity gaps remain.
Gold prices have swung sharply, while central-bank purchases and reserve diversification remain central to the discussion.
A historical look at safe-haven flows, wartime interest-rate controls, inflation and fiscal pressures on Treasury yields.
Oil affects household costs through refining, fuel, transport and retailing, with no fixed pass-through or timetable. Headline and core CPI need to be assessed together.
Gold reflects short-term rate and risk changes as well as longer-term reserve allocation. Separating these influences is more useful than applying one narrative to every rally.